Price dynamics in a Markovian limit order market

Дата: 
24/04/11
Авторы: 
Rama Cont Adrien de Larrard
Аннотация: 
We propose and study a simple stochastic model for the dynamics of a limit order book, in which arrivals of market order, limit orders and order cancellations are described in terms of a Markovian queueing system. Through its analytical tractability, the model allows to obtain analytical expressions for various quantities of interest such as the distribution of the duration between price changes, the distribution and autocorrelation of price changes, and the probability of an upward move in the price, conditional on the state of the order book. We study the di usion limit of the price process and express the volatility of price changes in terms of parameters describing the arrival rates of buy and sell orders and cancelations. These analytical results provide some insight into the relation between order flow and price dynamics in order-driven markets.
Описание: 

Статья о моделировании поведения стакана. Его состояние рассматривается в зависимости от очереди бидов и асков, которые в свою очередь - марковский процесс. Вся необходимая модель есть в статье, вроде как позволяет оценивать вероятность движения вверх или вниз, волатильность. Описано все достаточно подробно.